Faculty Profile: Tim Gulden

Tim Gulden

Tim Gulden

CSS Research Professor (Retired)


Primary Research: Agent Based Modeling of Social Science Problems

Office: Research I, CSC Suite, Level 3
Phone: 703-993-2517

Current Research Interests

His research focuses on modeling complex systems in the context of empirical data. His interests include the quantitative study of conflict dynamics, modeling adaptation to a changing climate, understanding the human and economic flows driving changes in the global urban system, and the development of novel urban metrics based on nighttime lights.

Teaching Interests

  • PUAF 699K: Civil Conflict and Terrorism
  • PUAF 698H: Complex Systems Perspectives on Public Policy

Dr. Timothy Gulden is a research assistant professor with the Center for Social Complexity in the Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study at George Mason University and a research scholar with the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM).  He completed his PhD at the UMD School of Public Policy in December of 2004 with a dissertation entitled “Adaptive Agent Modeling in a Policy Context.”  He has been a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution”s Center for Social and Economic Dynamics (CSED) and attended the Santa Fe Institute”s Complex Systems Summer School in 2002.  From 1989 through 1999, he was the technical director of the GIS program for Westchester County, New York.

He served as a full-time research fellow at CISSM, from 2004 through 2008 where he worked on a wide variety of issues including the oversight of hazardous biological research, the security implications of various policies in response to climate change and the spatial and temporal dynamics of civil violence.  He is particularly interested in developing novel ways of analyzing micro-scale data from violent conflicts that derive quantitative conclusions while preserving the spatial and temporal richness of the data.  He remains closely associated with CISSM because it provides a natural home for such work.

At present, his primary position is with the Center for Social Complexity at GMU, where he works to apply agent-based modeling techniques to the development of deeper understanding of civil violence in East Africa. His research interests range from methodological issues in the development and validation of agent-based models, through the use of complex systems techniques and remote sensed data to understanding the role of urban agglomerations in the process of globalization.

View Dr. Gulden’s full curriculum vitae as of May 2010 here.

Selected Publications

  1. “The Security Challenges of Climate Change: Who is at Risk and Why?” in Matthias Ruth and María E. Ibarrarán (eds), Distributional Impacts of Climate Change and Disasters: Concepts and Cases, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar Publishing 2009
  2. “Global Metropolis: Assessing Economic Activity in Urban Centers Based on Nighttime Satellite Images” with Richard Florida and Charlotta Mellander, Under revision for The Professional Geographer
  3. Critique of IFHS Violent Death Estimates – Letter to the Editor, New England Journal of Medicine July 24, 2008
  4. “The Rise of the Mega-region” with Charlotta Mellander and Richard Florida Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society 2008, 1, 459–476
  5. “New Light on Urban Growth in the U.S. and E.U.” with Selma Lewis, Gerrit Knaap, Casey Dawkins, and Chris Elvidge Presented to the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, January 7, 2008 Under revision for Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
  6. “Beyond Zipf: an Agent-Based Understanding of City Size Distributions” with Ross Hammond in preparation for submission to Environment and Planning B
  7. “Violence in Iraq is Beyond our Control” with John Steinbruner, Op-Ed in The Baltimore Sun, Sept 10, 2007
  8. “The Rise of the Megaregion” with Richard Florida and Charlotta Mellander Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society (accepted for publication)
  9. “Adaptive Agent Modeling as a Tool for Trade and Development Theory” Presented at 11th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance Washington, DC June 23-25, 2005 Appeared as Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 paper #112.
  10. “Integrating Environmental, Social and Economic Systems: A Dynamic Model of Tourism in Dominica” with Trista Patterson, Egor Kraev, and Kenneth Cousins Ecological Modeling, Volume 175, Issue 2, 1 July 2004, Pages 121-136
  11. “The Normal, the Fat-Tailed, and the Contagious: Modeling Changes in Emerging Market Bond Spreads with Endogenous Liquidity” with Paul Masson and Shubha Chakravarty, in M. Dungey and D. Tambakis, eds., Identifying International Financial Contagion: Progress and Challenges, Oxford University, 2005.
  12. “The Role of Regulation in Moderating the Impact of International Capital Flows on the Environment: A Dynamic Modeling Perspective” Invited paper presented October 23, 2002 at the New America Foundation, Washington, DC.
  13. “Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Civil Violence in Guatemala, 1977-1986” Politics and the Life Sciences, March 2002, 21:1 [Originally appeared February 2002 as Brookings Institution CSED Working Paper No. 26]

Peer Reviewed Conference Papers and Presentations

  1. “An Agent-Based Model of Land-Use Driven Conflict Among Pastoralists in the Mandera Region of East Africa” with G.C. Balan, J. K. Bassett, A. B. Hailegiorgis, W. G. Kennedy, and M. Rouleau, Association of American Geographers, Washington DC, April 2010
  2. “An Agent Based Model of Climate Change and Conflict among Pastoralists in East Africa” with A.B. Hailegiorgis, W.G. Kennedy, G.C. Balan, and J.K. Bassett, accepted to IEMSS2010.
  3. “An Agent-Based Model of Conflict in East Africa and the Effect of Watering Holes” with W.G. Kennedy, A.B. Hailegiorgis, M. Rouleau, J.K. Bassett, M. Coletti, and G.C. Balan, Proceedings of the 19th Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation, Charleston, SC, 21 – 24 March 2010, pp 274-281.
  4. “Conflict in Complex Socio-Natural Systems: Using Agent-Based Modeling to Understand the Behavioral Roots of Social Unrest within the Mandera Triangle” with M. Rouleau, M. Coletti, J.K. Bassett, A.B. Hailegiorgis, and W.G. Kennedy Human Behavior-Computational Modeling and Interoperability Conference 2009. Oak Ridge, TN. 23-24 June 2009.

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