COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE – Sustainable rural development: a complex systems approach to policy analysis – Qing Tian
COMPUTATONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE SEMINAR
Qing Tian, Assistant Professor
Computational Social Science Program
Department of Computational and Data Sciences
George Mason University
Sustainable rural development: a complex systems approach to policy analysis
Friday, April 7, 2017, 3:00 p.m.
Center for Social Complexity Suite
3rd Floor, Research Hall
The livelihoods of Chinese rural households have been undergoing a transformation amid rapid urbanization. Though participation in the urban economy has led to improved rural living standards, rural income has consistently lagged behind urban income, and a broader prosperity gap persists between urban and rural areas. Meanwhile, increasing non farm income is associated with the decline of agriculture, especially in those regions with relatively high industrial development. In this seminar I present an agent-based model developed to explore future rural development. The model represents land-use and livelihood decisions of farmer households in the Poyang Lake area, informed by household surveys and interviews. The model experiments aid our understanding about (1) the potential effects of three subsidy policies in villages with different farmland endowments and at different stages of urbanization, and (2) the resilience of rural development under plausible environmental and economic shocks. I discuss how policy may need to differentiate across locations and adapt in the near future to effectively promote rural development amid social and environmental changes.