COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE/COLLOQUIUM ON COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCES AND INFORMATICS-FORTEC: Forecasting the Development of Artificial Intelligence up to 2050 Using Agent-Based Modeling-Kieran Marray

August 31, 2018 @ 3:00 pm – 4:30 pm
Karen Underwood

Computational Social Science Research Colloquium /Colloquium in Computational and Data Sciences 




Kieran Marray, Laidlaw Scholar 
St. Catherine’s College
University of Oxford

FORTEC: Forecasting the Development of Artificial Intelligence up to 2050 Using Agent-Based Modeling

Friday, August 31, 3:00 p.m.
Center for Social Complexity, 3rd Floor Research Hall

All are welcome to attend.

The past decade has been characterized by massive leaps forward in fields like machine learning and computer vision. Will it last? How should we think about this problem? I shall argue that agent-based modeling can be used to forecast the emergence of innovation in AI and should be able to do so better than the current models. I shall do this as follows. Firstly, I shall review previous attempts, specifically Osborne and Frey (2013) and McKinsey (2017). However, I shall show that the methodology underlying these approaches is flawed due to its reliance upon expert opinion. This can be reduced by simulating the individual firms and their actions in an empirically realistic manner. So, I shall attempt to do this, building an agent-based forecasting model (FORTEC) from the bottom up. It will be applied to the set of firms and research labs in the US working on AI to derive the first empirical predictions for the ability to automate nineteen different types of task from now until 2050. The model is far from perfect though, it is intended simply as a first approximation for others to build upon. Therefore, I shall finish by laying out some ways in which this framework could be applied or improved, from forecasting innovations in other high-technology industries such as photovoltaics to simulating non-American firms.

Kieran is a Laidlaw Scholar from St Catherine’s College, University of Oxford. He has been visiting the Center for Social Complexity over the summer to do research in complexity economics supervised by Professor Rob Axtell.