Calendar

RESEARCH COLLOQUIUM ON COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE/DATA SCIENCES
Ross Schuchard
Computational Social Science PhD Candidate
Department of Computational and Data Sciences
Bots in Nets: Empirical Comparative Analysis of Bot Evidence in Social Networks
Friday, April 26, 3:00 p.m.
Center for Social Complexity Suite, 3rd Floor Research Hall
All are welcome to attend.
Abstract:
The emergence of social bots within online social networks (OSNs) to diffuse information at scale has given rise to many efforts to detect them. While methodologies employed to detect the evolving sophistication of bots continue to improve, much work can be done to characterize the impact of bots on communication networks. In this study, we present a framework to describe the pervasiveness and relative importance of participants recognized as bots in various OSN conversations. Specifically, we harvested over 30 million tweets from three major global events in 2016 (the U.S. Presidential Election, the Ukrainian Conflict and Turkish Political Censorship) and compared the conversational patterns of bots and humans within each event. We further examined the social network structure of each conversation to determine if bots exhibited any particular network influence, while also determining bot participation in key emergent network communities. The results showed that although participants recognized as social bots comprised only 0.28% of all OSN users in this study, they accounted for a significantly large portion of prominent centrality rankings across the three conversations. This includes the identification of individual bots as top-10 influencer nodes out of a total corpus consisting of more than 2.8 million nodes.

“How to Translate GIS into a Career”

Madeline Lother, a GGS alumna, and her supervisor Sid Pandey from Dewberry will give a talk on transitioning from your GIS education to the working world. They will discuss different options for which Dewberry currently has openings. Dewberry has a close connection with GMU and GGS and we highly encourage students to attend this event.

Notice and Invitation
Oral Defense of Doctoral Dissertation
Doctor of Philosophy in Computational Social Science
Department of Computational and Data Sciences
College of Science
George Mason University

E. André L’Huillier M.
Bachelor of Arts, Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, 2010
Master of Arts, Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, 2012
Blockbuster Emergence in Entertainment Platform Markets: Modeling
the History of the Video Game Industry in North America

Tuesday, April 30, 2019, 1:00 p.m.
Exploratory Hall, Room 3302
All are invited to attend.

Committee
Robert Axtell, Chair
Marshall Van Alstyne
William Kennedy
Eduardo López

Entertainment markets are typically dominated by blockbusters; which are characterized for being highly popular and financially successful over a vast majority of failures. Today, the entertainment industry has shifted into a platform model, where a similar concentration occurs. The expanding and disruptive placement of multi-sided business organization has modified many cultural markets, reshaping the way products are created, delivered, and consumed. Nevertheless, entertainment platforms still depend heavily on the existence of blockbusters. I study the history of video game industry with particular attention to the life cycle of platforms and blockbuster emergence. After an empirical analysis of the home console market and a literature review of its history, an agent-based model of the video game market is presented. The model aims to represent the complex behavior of the market’s heterogeneous actors. The design is based on platform economics, diffusion through social networks, and social influence; with an emphasis in decision making under high uncertainty. Results of the model successfully reproduce the main dynamics of the market in a simple behavioral representation. The simulation experiments indicate that peer influence in a multi-sided organization is sufficient to reproduce the industry’s life-cycles, its high concentration, and extreme uncertainty. Furthermore, results of the model display the combined effect of promotion and word of mouth; particularly on how mass promotion provides an increment in expectation while the tipping force of adoption usually depends
on social influence. Although the model is able to reproduce the emergence of blockbusters and market concentration in a completely uncertain market, the rule-based nature of its structure allows for future experiments that consider installed base factors, quality, or
asymmetries in market power. After the initial results of the base model, a series of extensions are presented to address additional issues of blockbuster formation in entertainment platforms. The extensions focus in the role of market segmentation in quality perception, the effect of uncertainty and consumer perception, and finally, an exploration on basic aspects of platform management. Results for the extension on consumer preferences and product features presents the complex interaction between sub-groups in the formation
of positive expectations and market concentration; where partial diversity of games properties is better than its extremes (i.e. fully heterogeneous or identical). Results on consumer perception experiments also provide evidence of a non-linear effect on adoption
and market behavior; with higher perception consumers are able to discriminate earlier without the generation of sufficient hype to form blockbusters or platform participation. Finally, the platform management section goes through matters of time of release, multihoming, and a price structure prototype. In general, results on these extensions present an important effect of externalities among platforms operations (e.g. the mutual hype generation when consumers multi-home or when platforms release at closer dates). Future
research on entertainment platforms should consider an empirical approach to describe preference and product heterogeneity, which may further inquire in a critical review of quality in markets with high uncertainty. Finally, the insights of the model are useful for the
study of other markets beyond the video games or the entertainment business. The insights provided and the model’s framework are relevant to any multi-sided system that sees a dominant herd behavior based in decision uncertainty like social media or platforms for
collective action.

RESEARCH COLLOQUIUM ON COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE/DATA SCIENCES
Gary Bogle, PhD
Computational Social Science
George Mason University
Polity Cycling in Great Zimbabwe via Agent-Based Modeling:
The Effects of Timing and Magnitude of External Factors
Friday, May 03, 3:00 p.m.
Center for Social Complexity Suite, 3rd Floor Research Hall
All are welcome to attend.
Abstract:
This research explores polity cycling at the site of Great Zimbabwe. It rests on laying out the possibilities that may explain what is seen in the archaeological record in terms of modeling what external factors, operating at specific times and magnitudes. What can cause a rapid rise and decline in the polity? This is explored in terms of attachment that individuals feel towards the small groups of which they are a part of, and the change in this attachment in response to their own resources and the history of success that the group enjoys in conducting collective action. The model presented in this research is based on the Canonical Theory of politogenesis. It is implemented using an agent-based model as this type of model excels at generating macro-level behavior from micro-level decisions.
The input parameters to the model presented here are the collective action frequency (CAF) and environmental effect multiplier. The results show that a prehistoric polity can be modeled to demonstrate a sharp rise and fall in community groups and that the rise and fall emerges from the individual decision-making.

To facilitate open communication with all College of Science faculty, Dean Agouris is continuing to offer open door sessions periodically throughout the academic year.

Ideal topics for these faculty walk-in appointments include:

• new faculty introductions
• ideas for growth
• sharing research, teaching, or service activities
• multidisciplinary collaboration opportunities

Dean Agouris will be holding additional open door sessions on the following dates in Exploratory Hall 3200:

• October 24, 2018
• November 14, 2018
• November 27, 2018
• December 12, 2018
• January 15, 2019
• February 12, 2019
• February 27, 2019
• April 16, 2019
• March 27, 2019
• May 8, 2019
• May 21, 2019

Open door sessions will also be held at 3006 IABR on the SciTech Campus on the following dates from 10:30-12:30pm:

• October 9, 2018
• January 30, 2019
• February 19, 2019

Call ahead notification is not required. Just check in with Teri Fede in Suite 3200 Exploratory Hall (Fairfax) or at  IABR 3006 (SciTech).  If a queue forms during these periods, she will allocate time accordingly for those requesting it.

The College of Science Associate Dean of Research announces the College of Science Grant Development Forums for the 2018-2019 academic year.

The forums are regularly scheduled panel discussions for grant ideas, drafts and proposal reviews in which participants have the opportunity to discuss their research ideas with a panel of seasoned investigators co-led by Drs. Ali Andalibi and Joel Schnur.

Faculty, post docs and PhD students performing research within our College are encouraged to attend. This is a great opportunity to explore ideas!

To share your idea or proposal, please send your draft for consideration at least one week prior to the scheduled session to Ali Andalibi. Submissions will be reviewed by the panel on a first-come, first-served basis.

If you would like to participate as a panel reviewer, please contact Ali Andalibi for more information.

Forum Dates

• Monday, Nov. 12^th
• Monday, Dec. 17^th **
• Monday, Jan. 14^th
• Monday, Feb. 11^th @ SciTech Campus (location TBD)
• Monday, March 18^th **
• Monday, April 8^th
• Monday, May 13^th
• Monday, June 10^th @ SciTech Campus (location TBD)

** Change to regular schedule

Taking on the world…

Our students are graduating and they need our help to celebrate! Join us for brunch to celebrate their many achievements alongside their family and friends. Please let us know if you can attend and how many are in your party.

RSVP by May 1, 2019. Questions? Please contact Sam Cooke at scooke4@gmu.edu.

Information for Graduates

• Assemble at 1 p.m. in Parking Lot A at the sign for your degree and major.
• You will be given a card to write your name as it sounds (phonetically). You will hand this card to the usher on stage; this is the way your name will be read properly as you walk across the stage.
• Wear your cap and gown when you arrive. You will not be allowed to participate without a cap and gown.

Guest Information

• Doors open at 1 p.m. Seats are first-come-first-served.
• No tickets are required for this event, bring as many guests as you like.
• Parking: Please park in any surface lot as directed by the parking attendants.

Rain Plan

If it is raining on the afternoon of Wednesday, May 15, there will be no procession for bachelor’s and master’s degree candidates in the event of rain.