COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE – Assessing Adverse Selection in the Individual Health Insurance Market using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation – Kevin Comer
COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE FRIDAY SEMINAR
Kevin Comer, PhD Candidate
Computational Social Science
Department of Computational and Data Sciences
Assessing Adverse Selection in the Individual Health Insurance Market using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation
Friday, February 17, 2017 = 3:00 p.m.
Center for Social Complexity Suite
3rd Floor, Research Hall
Adverse selection is the phenomenon of “rigged trades” created by asymmetric information between buyers and sellers. This becomes significant in the case of health insurance, where a buyer may know more about his or her health than the insurer. The concern is that widespread adverse selection may lead to a “death spiral”, where premiums become too costly for healthy people to afford, and the only subscribers left are unhealthy people requiring costly health care. Both before and after the passing of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA, also known as “Obamacare”) in 2013, the concern for adverse selection has been assessed by a number of different methods of economic modeling, most notably game theory models, econometrics, and microsimulation. Kevin Comer utilizes agent-based modeling to assess the emergence and effects of adverse selection on a simulated individual health insurance market, and to test the parameters of already existing policy (coverage and individual mandates, risk corridors, medical loss ratios, and health insurance exchanges) to assess their long-term feasibility.
About the presenter: Kevin Comer is a Senior Simulation Modeling Engineer at MITRE Corporation. He received his B.S in Systems Engineering and Economics from the University of Virginia, and his M.S. in Operations Research from George Mason University. He is currently a Computational and Social Science Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Computational and Data Sciences at George Mason University. Kevin is scheduled to defend his dissertation in Spring 2017.